Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
http://franklymls.com/FX7193938For spider...Now this one is listed at $449k, but they have shown clear signs of desperation. The "remarks" keep changing... such that it now says:Lovely stone front rambler w/stone walkway in convenient Fairfax Club Estates, 4 bed 3 full bath, 2 car garage on a beautiful fenced lot w/deck, patio shed. Updated kitchen w/stainless appliances gorgeous cabinets. 1st floor master. Great location,minutes to shopping/VRE/FFX Co.Pkwy/BusMetro!***$5,000 CARPET OR CLOSING CREDIT OFFERED BY SELLER***OPEN HOUSE 11/22 1-4Now, it does back to train tracks. But it's pretty convenient to the VRE... and is in the coveted Robinson High School district, and it's conceivable you might talk them down to under $400k, because they're pretty clearly motivated to get out from under this house.At 1983 it's newer than most of the area, has a two car garage and a nice stone front. Maybe the second open house in three weeks has already done the job... if not the market has already spoken on your behalf pretty loud and clear.
Cara - Thanks. I am mostly interested in a colonial. But, let me check this one out. Now, there aren't many pics to speak of, which could mean it needs quite a bit of work..
Cara - which one did you buy? rambler, colonial or split?
Case Shiller Released:Metro Area 09-08 8-08 to 9-08 9-07 to 9-08Atlanta 122.72 -1.3% -9.5%Boston 160.98 -1.1% -5.7%Charlotte 130.40 -1.3% -3.5%Chicago 147.84 -1.1% -10.1%Cleveland 109.87 -0.6% -6.4%Dallas 121.96 -0.8% -2.7%Denver 130.96 -1.3% -5.4%Detroit 90.17 -2.5% -18.6%Las Vegas 146.58 -2.6% -31.3%Los Angeles 184.54 -2.5% -27.6%Miami 178.72 -2.6% -28.4%Minneapolis 140.51 -1.0% -14.4%New York 191.32 -1.0% -7.3%Phoenix 139.79 -3.5% -31.9%Portland 169.67 -1.3% -8.6%San Diego 164.12 -2.4% -26.3%San Francisco 145.53 -3.9% -29.5%Seattle 172.84 -1.4% -9.8%Tampa 171.24 -1.8% -18.5%Washington 189.90 -2.2% -17.2%
spider,Given the price they shucked out in 2005 I doubt it needs a lot of work, but there's never anyway to tell until you're there in person. I've seen pictures that make things look move-in perfect that are actually really poorly finished in person, and ones that look dodgy in pictures, or have very few pictures that it was just a bad camera.a rambler for me. My only preference is against split-foyers and bi-levels. And I'm not partial to Mansford roofs at all. Split-levels, ranches, ramblers, colonials and capes are all fine with me. Although I have to say, having the full square footage of the house duplicated on the basement level is a big plus, and I really like the flow of the rambler.
spider,Harriet's put up a new post with the C-S numbers for the region...
One in Four Borrowers under water - WSJ"The proportion of U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth has swelled to about 23%, threatening prospects for a sustained housing recovery.Nearly 10.7 million households had negative equity in their homes in the third quarter, according to First American CoreLogic, a real-estate information company based in Santa Ana, Calif"
virginia is above the national average for underwater mortgages andRobert is going to say " That's a good sign because it means sellers will demand top dollar and can't sell at a lower price".
I'm going to ask how many people have seen properties fail to close?http://franklymls.com/DC7086514this one has been 227 Days on Market.it's gone UC 3 times and failed to close. 3 Times....i've been seeing that on multiple properties, people bid but can't seal the deal.What's up with that?
"i've been seeing that on multiple properties, people bid but can't seal the deal.What's up with that?"I see it alot too. My guess is the lack of creditworthiness. The will to buy is there -- the money aint!
pat said..." virginia is above the national average for underwater mortgages and Robert is going to say " That's a good sign because it means sellers will demand top dollar and can't sell at a lower price"."LOL!!!
WSJ: Some have no mortgage debt."Most U.S. homeowners still have some equity, and nearly 24 million owner-occupied homes don't have any mortgage, according to the Census Bureau."
@J@Do the math, figure 350M americans,average family size 2 adults 2.2 Kids.4.2 people per household.so right there it's 90 Million households. 1/3rd rent, so 60 Millionhousholders in property they exert title to.maybe 3 Million are in mobile homes, or such.so we got 57Million households in houses, condos, etc....figure 1/3 have no mortgage, been there forever. 1/3 bought before the bubble, and 1/3 bought during the bubble. So 19 Million households in bibble era. Most of these are underwater.why should'nt we have 24 million with no mortgage. If you bought a house in Detroit in 1957, you don't have a mortgage hopefully, but you don't have much equity either.The social problem is the 10-20M householders underwater, they need bankruptcy relief, so they can file and solve their troubles.
Hello Pat,I've mentioned this before. I'm in Immundria zip code 22305. Several of my neighbors have paid off their places.One has a $400K place; the other has an $800K place. Doesn't mean much except as you say, they bought a while ago. I bring them up as a counter point to the "idea" that paid-off places may be worthless. I know another family who very likely has paid off their North Arlington place, they're in Lynnwood.Going into "Robert" mode, the question has always floated, "Why aren't prices plunging in Immundria and Immunington?" I think the answer is that this area is old, many owners have had time to pay off their places and consequently few are upside down and forced to sell. Since they're not selling, the few choice places are bid up.
@J@ in the older neighborhoods, especially with larger homes on larger lots those were basically terminal homes, wealthy people, world citizens etc or Arlingtonand alexandria and NW DC ( Georgetown, palisades, AU Park)t if you look at all those Condoson wilson, N Fairfax and carendon?)all those are going to go tits up.there is a condo bldg in DC on M st NE that's bankrupt, the units are 50% off. give it some time that phenomena will spread to those units. the folks who bought into the starter houses at too much money are draining their 401K's, savings accts and hoping that low interest rates protect them for now.take my neighbors, i rent a 2BR apt in a triplex for $1K, it's a nice older unit. They bought half a duplex, 2 BR for 426K in 2006. now suppose they bought on a 5/25 ARM, their payments are lower then minea 5 year arm right now is 2.65%but if they look to go to a 30 year fixed that's 4% and 1700/month Interest alone. now he has a good job, she's staying at home for the baby.they bought so they could have a baby.matt knows the rent i'm paying and sometimes over beers he mutters about the cost of buying a nest.now here's a similiar onehttp://franklymls.com/AR7122962slightly better street, sold thissummer for 326Kassume 4% growth, matt is underwaterfor 8 years. no refi, without adding 100K. if things go downhill, a bit more it's underwater for longer.imagine being in a starter house for 10 years before you are above water?????the folks who bought starter homes for too much money but still have jobs are just hanging in.Hoping life will get better.Hope is a great support
And those of us who still haven't bought are trying to avoid exactly the situation pat has described. It is still very easy to get screwed by housing for years to come, especially if you overpay now. Interest rates will go up eventually, and that will bring affordability down. Prices may be sticky, except for those people that just have to sell due to some emergency. Those are the homes selling now in the 600k+ range. The rest of them are going stale, off market, and relisting later for a lower price.
It already happened, Pat. I was there and it wasn't bad.Here's the current low dollar offering, 201 GLEBE RD E ##6-201C in 22305 from Frankly.Check out the assessment history:2009 $226,675 2008 $256,717 2007 $296,300 2006 $296,300 2005 $231,600 2004 $156,700 2003 $97,000 maybe we're OK 2002 $61,500 2001 $56,300 2000 $53,400 1999 $51,300 Hold me. I'm afraid1998 $53,200 1997 $55,200 1996 $57,000 1995 $62,900 1994 $66,200 1993 $66,200 1992 $66,200 1991 $66,200 Flat to falling for all of the 1990's. Amazingly, there weren't hoots and hollars during that time frame. $66.2K to $51.3K is big percentage drop. It wiped out any 10% down of, er, ah, $6.6K. Even 20% down, $13.2, leaves you gasping for air. Owners were UNDERWATER FOR YEARS but somehow, they kept paying the $600 or $700 mortgage just fine. Eventually the coiled spring, just LET LOOSE and here we are.Is it worse now? Maybe. The numbers feel different. But then I'm not used to paying $4.00 for a cup of coffee.I'm seeing the exact same pattern at all areas of the Immundria market.
@J@the 90s were a decade with builddowndealing with the burnout of the ARMSof the late 80's and the S&L crisis.That levered up prices to 4X household income.What we have here is a 9X rise inleverage (Price to income), so thatwill take a much longer time to work out. We could spend 5 decades eating that up, we could have inflation or we could see more writedown.The Case SHiller index rolls with the same results from the 80's to nowhttp://mises.org/images4/Case-Shiller_LongRun.jpgwhat you cite @J@ was the 10% reduction in the 90's. I guess the question is where do you think the C-S index will bottom at?
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