Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
http://franklymls.com/AR7206005Nice the first picture for this is a picture of the metro. You would think that that it would be closer than 8 blocks away if the first picture is of the metro. I don't know what land is going for over there, but that would be impressive if they bought the house at the very end of 2002 and were able to sell half there land in 2009 and pay off the mortgage for the house and the other half of their land.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Housing-starts-permits-fall-rb-1220483596.html?x=0It looks like home builders are continuing to build very few homes. This is probably a smart choice since there is still too much inventory. I wonder if construction is still holding up in our market, which has better fundamentals than most places.
housebuyer, Agreed - and, I don't know how you count blocks, but from the map, it looks more like 10 blocks to me.
housebuyer, i'd go with this one for $600K...The Silverdome"Nearly 35 years after taxpayers spent $55.7 million building the Pontiac Silverdome and a year after a $20 million sale fell through, city officials have sold the arena once called the most desirable property in Oakland County. The price: $583,000."
housebuyer,That's a real winner, I'll move my house over for you a bit, and live with your construction noise, if you want a subdivided lot to build on... How inviting. It's a new twist on make me move.
novahog, that is interesting. I wonder if the tax assessment is now based on the sale price.
NY Times Article about a Philadelphia program that in my mind is just "prolonging what appears to be the inevitable", as stated by a lawyer in the article.NY TIMES
nova-I also saw that article yesterday. I don't understand how it couldn't have gone for a couple of million for scrap/land value alone. Detriot really is having some tough times. Imagine if you could buy a house that was made 35 years ago for 1% of its 1974 value.
housebuyer,on yesterdays McLean REO: i don't know anything about that property i just stumble upon the sold record and dropped my jaw. so many questions marks about it, isn't it? hopefully someone follows McLean on here will chime in. would love to hear the back story.
NY Times Article about a Philadelphia program that in my mind is just "prolonging what appears to be the inevitable", as stated by a lawyer in the article.Excellent article. Once again, unless the nation, the courts, the administration, or the mob puts a theoretical gun to the banks head, they will not, ever, take the hit and reduce the principal. It's simple: They have the contract, you owe them, they want that money. Period.Bank Rule 1: Never let the fish off the hook.Bank Rule 2: If someone asks you to release the fish, see Rule 1.FWIW.
RE: the silverdome article...There will be few places where we see the "rubber hitting the road" as vividly as this. Detroit is one of those places. $500K for that deal should be a screaming flaming alarm to everyone within 500 miles of the Silverdome.Get. Out. Now.Would love to see all the press articles from way back when whey the citizens of MI were promised raining manna and honey only if they built this stadium.I expect more stories like the Silverdome fire sale to continue to weep out of California, Nevada, and Florida as the medicine of correction spreads in the body Real Estate.
novahog, robert,Ya, that seems like a nice price for the Silverdome, but the burden would of course be the taxes, and upkeep, including security staff even when not in use. And dealing with snow on that inflatable roof.My question is, on properties like this, is there such a thing as comparables?Do the keepers of say, Syracuse Carrier Dome (a similar inflated roof architecture in the snow belt) have to mark down the value of THAT property?
Kevin, I found these 2 that you might not have seen because they aren't withhin your criteria BUT one is 2 acres and the other is over a 1/2 acre and both look like you could build/renovate to get what you want and not worry about losing moneyhttp://franklymls.com/FC6942528 and FX100310
Arkey, appreciate that. But I'm not going for anything that's a tear-down or has too big of a yard (too much maintenance!).
Ok..every little bit helps to zero in on what you are looking for. Your right, in your zip code preference, its old or crap or way to much money
"Scott said...novahog, robert,Ya, that seems like a nice price for the Silverdome, but the burden would of course be the taxes, and upkeep, including security staff even when not in use."Yep -- I heard its 1.5 million bucks annually just to keep the place up. Almost surprised they didnt have to pay someone to take it off their hands!
Arkey,I have a completely different attitude and response to the FX County listing off the Parkway.First, it's a brick and stone house on two acres for 250K. Yard work? There are many trees and a riding mower is less than 1K.At a minimum (if I was alot younger), I'd be in the car to take a look. I'd call the assessor and see what's up with the big drop. I'd call environmental and see about the perc cert and well.I'd take a contractor to see what it would take to make it livable. Two acres could become a long-time expanded home. MLS says 1/1, tax records say 3/1.In my mind, you've got to do alot of looking and can't just "turn up your nose" without any investigation whatsoever.Tax records already tell us zoning doesn't allow subdivision.With that picture and arial,how on earth anyone can look at a picture and an mls decription and say "no way", is completely beyond me. Yes, you may waste a few hours. Big deal! Because that is exactly what you might be missing.
I drive by FC6942528 several times a week. It is sandwiched between several schools and some lower rent apartment complexes, and it's not far from the I-66 sound wall. I wouldn't touch it.
Robert,I don't think the Fed is going to keep the Fed Funds rate at 0-0.25% between now and 2012 if we really have reached recovery with 3Q09 (which was 3.5% GDP). All signs point to 4Q09 being positive as well. And presumably 1Q10 through 3Q12 being positive as well. Thirteen consecutive quarters of growth and no Fed Funds rate increase? Unlikely.Of course, it could be that this Fed member you quoted thinks we are going to have a W recovery. I don't think that helps housing if that's what the Fed predicts.
Va_Investor,I think this was the big announcement that was coming you heard about. Did I miss someone already noting this? Hopefully Bob McDonnell appreciates that announcements like this will stop coming if we keep underfunding transportation in Northern Virginia. A $200 million genetic research facility planned for Fairfax County could bring with it thousands of jobs over the next decade and spur spinoff businesses that would focus on the fast-growing field of personalized medicine, Virginia officials and researchers said Monday as they announced the move. Enticed by millions of dollars in tax breaks and a location close to universities and federal agencies, officials with the Ignite Institute for Individualized Health, a nonprofit organization specializing in DNA research, announced that the center's facility would be in a 300,000-square-foot campus in the Northern Virginia suburb. A location has not been selected.The institute's founder, California geneticist Dietrich Stephan, said the institute would create 415 jobs in the region over the next five years and would partner with Fairfax-based Inova Health System, the community hospital company where Stephan will serve as an executive director. I look forward to hearing where it is located. I'm guessing you can't put together a 300,000 square feet campus in Tysons or Reston (nor would that fit with the stated goal of increasing density in that corridor). Maybe this will be a win for Cara and HayfieldGrad and it will be somewhere in the southern portion of the county. ---Now if only we could see an employer announcing as many jobs as this one in Vegas:In October, even as companies were cutting jobs, John Deere and Caterpillar recalled some laid-off factory workers, and City Center, the mammoth casino-hotel-condo complex in Las Vegas, began hiring 12,000 workers for its December opening.12,000? Wow. Whereas Ffx's latest announcement is just 415 new jobs. Maybe the smart investor money *is* in Vegas.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/222628was the article the Vegas employer info came from.
I don't think the Fed is going to keep the Fed Funds rate at 0-0.25% between now and 2012 if we really have reached recovery with 3Q09 (which was 3.5% GDP). All signs point to 4Q09 being positive as well. And presumably 1Q10 through 3Q12 being positive as well. Thirteen consecutive quarters of growth and no Fed Funds rate increase? Unlikely.I agree. I hope you understand why I think it is unlikely that discretionary spending will be cut 5%. Another subject:Neither of us could foresee something like the Ignite Institute plopping down in Fairfax County as a result of Obama's health care initiatives. We were debating the size of the bureaucracy related to the new Health Care bill and all of a sudden a...medical revolution may transform Northern Virginia
Robert,This has absolutely nothing to do with Obama or the universal health care bill. Both of which I support. It has everything to do with wanting to partner with Inova and Virginia and Ffx Co offering up to $25M in incentives. We have had biotechnology companies in the region for decades. This deal would have happened even if John McCain were president.
TBW, you want 12,000 jobs?Linkor...Linkor...Linkor...Link
Yeah, but Pearlstein says "transform", a word you've heard me use a few times.
My thesis is still that WDC and NOVA in particular become a hotbed of private investment activity in health care, energy, information technology, and finance.
Arkey,I can't load FX100310. Did they take it down?I think NoVAWatcher brings up some of the problems with the Fairfax City one. I'd say though that I-66 noise is not going to be a problem there. However, Jermantown Road noise would be a problem. And your home fronting a major road like that.
IT investment:I already posted about WDC becoming the center of the fast growing cybersecurity field.Data Centers:DuPont Fabros (DFT) reported its third quarter earnings late Tuesday, including four previously undisclosed leases in Northern Virginia. Significantly, the company was able to quickly fill space that was being vacated in its VA3 data center in Reston, Va. The deals continue the torrid pace of leasing in Northern Virginia, which is currently the most active market in the nation.LinkLinkLinkLinkLinkLinkLinkLink PDF
My thesis is that over the next five years there will be major job growth in all of these cities: Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Richmond, Charlotte, Raleigh, Orlando, Miami, Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Vegas, Seattle, and Chicago. And probably many more cities.The places that will not see major job growth and maybe job losses are places like Detroit, the Rust Belt, the angry parts of the South (South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma), Appalachia, and anything in a northeastern state not along the Acela/I-95 corridor.I've never disagreed that there will be job growth here. I just don't think we'll see the Great Migration of all of the USA here like you have predicted. Nor do I think it will happen as quickly as you do. Recovery takes time.Income growth also usually is limited to periods where you have more jobs than people to fill them with. Not more people to fill the jobs than jobs to fill.
VA-Investor..I agree 100% with you..but..we take lemons and make lemonaide. Kevin isn't interested in yardwork or a fixer. Me, I'd be mowing you down to take a look and getting a low interest rate FHA rehab loan
TBW-There is supposed to be a 7 after the FX before the rest of the numbers.
TBW try this.http://franklymls.com/FX7100310
Just for fun. Since The Anonymous put what he felt a housing bear would have said in the 90s, I think I'll add what Robert would have said:Sept 1992 -- CS is now at 89.03...Prices are still too high, one way or another they are coming down.Robert: Prices are still too low. The polls show America will elect Bill Clinton and Hillarycare will be massive gov't spending bringing tons of jobs to the area. Plus the Democratic Congress and Clinton will massively expand gov't spending in addition to healthcare.Sept 1993 -- CS is now at 89.18...Prices are still too high, one way or another they are coming down.Robert: Reston Town Center is clearly a success and so too is this new Fair Lakes mixed use area. Prices are still way too low. Hillarycare will soon pass and bring tons of new federal government employees to Washington.Sept 1994 -- CS is now at 90.52...Prices are still too high, one way or another they are coming down.Robert: Contract with America looks to be successful. GOP likely to take over Congress and provide more work to gov't contractors. Expect massive demand for Northern Virginia office space. Buy now or regret it. Prices are comically too low.Sept 1995 -- CS is now at 89.32...Prices are still too high, one way or another they are coming down.Robert: Everyone is now using the World Wide Web and many are using America Online based here. AOL will soon be providing internet service to almost all of America. AOL's jobs needs will explode and area home prices will explode as well. Prices are still way too low. Buy now or regret it.Sept 1996 -- CS is now at 89.29...Prices are still too high, one way or another they are coming down.Robert: Bob Dole is pledging to cut income taxes 15 percent across the board. This will add massive amounts of money to the rich who will buy up tons of real estate in Northern Virginia and price you out forever. Buy now or regret it.Sept 1997 -- CS is now at 89.93...Prices are still too high, one way or another they are coming down.Robert: This Northup Grumman-Lockheed Martin merger will go through and bring tons of jobs to Northern Virginia. Buy now before all those Lockheed higher-up sell their Potomac or Bethesda homes and bid up the price of homes in Northern Virginia.Sept 1998 & beyond, we all know where prices went after that...Robert: HA! Prices went up 3% over the past year. I warned you! I bet you regret not buying in 1992 now.
Arkey/Va_Investor,I think it makes sense that kevin is not interested in 7100310. In addition to the crummy home it's a little isolated. It's nice to be in a SFH or TH neighborhood where there is a community of 30-50 families. Here you have one neighbor in walking distance. Not exactly suburbia. This home is more isolated than homes I've seen in rural parts of Virginia.The only person for whom the land makes sense is someone buying land -- a developer or person wanting to build a huge, isolated mansion.
Something fishy about the huge variance in the land value in the county records:Tax Year Land Building Assessed Total Tax Exempt2009 $90,000 $9,000 $99,000 NO2008 $425,000 $176,400 $601,400 NO2007 $326,000 $196,000 $522,000 NO2006 $326,000 $143,430 $469,430 NO2005 $220,000 $87,420 $307,420 NO2004 $130,000 $87,415 $217,415 NO2003 $97,000 $97,415 $194,415 NO2002 $64,000 $125,415 $189,415 NO2001 $50,000 $106,540 $156,540 NO2000 $50,000 $86,120 $136,120 NO
Make no mistake, I don't mind a fixer-upper. I'm a capable handy man. But no tear-downs or truly F-ed houses. I wouldn't buy anything that needs more than $15k of work done to it. But I definitely do appreciate you posting those for me.
Kevin, your welcome. Everybody has the own version of home, what they are looking for and what they consider good value. I'm a space/land nut. I just bought 60 acres with my new home..some people would say I was a nut..and they will really think I'm a nut when they see the white peacocks, minature horses and pigs.
tbw,First off, 2 acres is not a huge amount of land. It is rare to get that around here and many like privacy and no HOA. My point was that I can't see outright dismissing this without even a look - but that's just me (and Arkey).Second, while it can be nice to live in a subdivision consisting of 3 variations of the same home. The only problem is that there will never be anything that distinguishes your particular house. You are tied to the comps forever.Going outside a subdivision gives you the opportunity to do smart things that can really push the appraisal.If kevin wants to limit himself to a subdivision or something that requires minimal work, then he is part of the herd. Which is fine, but not usually too smart from an investment standpoint.Just because a property could "take" 50K or 250K in renovation/expansion doesn't mean it needs to be done in the next few years. By "take", I refer to not over-improving for the neighborhood.Of course all of this is mere speculation since I've seen neither the house nor the nabe.
Arkey-Wow that sounds like a serious peace of land you got yourself. Have fun with all the animals.
Arkey,I've got 90+ acres and am tremendously jealous of my tenants!
Congrats Arkey. I dream about that kind of thing.
Kevin-There are no pictures of the house, which may be a bad sign. You may need to combine some rooms to bring is from a 5/2 to something more like a 3/2 since it is only 1960 sq. ft(including basement), but I bet you could get this in the 350K range. It is a short sale trying to sell for its appraised value. Normally shorts go for significantly less than appraisal.As someone also looking in this area there is virtually nothing at the price I would like to pay.
Kevin-This actually looks like it could be a decent deal. http://franklymls.com/FX7027347
Thanks everybody..its really a nice piece of property. We also have 84 acres here in Va. and its beautiful, too. My property line is the otter river, its a big tear drop shape. Thats the one we get the cold calls on about 3 to 4 times a year asking us if we would sell and they aren't realtors.I can post a link to the Ar. property if its allowed or you can go find it from the address which is 9014 E HWY 10 greenwood Ar
http://www.trulia.com/property/photos/1077947025-9014-E-Highway-10-Greenwood-AR-72936this has some pictures, zillow doesn't.
Oh my gosh Arkey I love it!!! The hill behind, the land, the stainglass details the tiffany chandelier the dark distressed wood floors. Love love love it.Congrats!!!
Arkey,Congratulations. I'm confused though. 84 acres in VA? I thought you lived in a subdivision in PWC? Or are the 84 acres somewhere in VA outside of this area?
Forget Metro access, I want Arkey's place!
Va_Investor,Second, while it can be nice to live in a subdivision consisting of 3 variations of the same home. The only problem is that there will never be anything that distinguishes your particular house. You are tied to the comps forever.Going outside a subdivision gives you the opportunity to do smart things that can really push the appraisal.If kevin wants to limit himself to a subdivision or something that requires minimal work, then he is part of the herd. Which is fine, but not usually too smart from an investment standpoint.Just speaking for myself: I'm buying a home, not an investment. I'm also planning on buying a place I can live in through retirement. Barring 4+ kids or some ultimatum from a future spouse I will not have any reason to move. That's bliss to me. Not trying to sell for a profit every 5-7 years.Perhaps I crave more stability than the average American because I lived in the same home from birth to 12th grade (and stayed at that home on breaks during college.) I just know so many people who have owned a home for 30+ years and they seem happy. I think it would be great.
Just since we have discussed payroll taxes before. Potential Medicare tax hike on high earners...WASHINGTON (AP) ― Majority Leader Harry Reid is considering a plan for higher payroll taxes on the upper-income earners to help finance health care legislation he intends to introduce in the Senate in the next several days, numerous Democratic officials said Wednesday.These officials said one of the options Reid has had under review would raise the payroll tax that goes to Medicare, but only on income above $250,000 a year. Current law sets the tax at 1.45 percent of income, an amount matched by employers.It was not known how large an increase Reid, D-Nev., was considering, or whether it would also apply to a company's portion of the tax. President Barack Obama has said he will not raise taxes on wage earners making less than $250,000.
Thanks Cara..it has beautiful views on the drive up from greenwood and across the way you can see the hills. We do like it except for the friggin pink kitchen walls/entry way? DUH. can you believe that is what my realtor said kept it from selling. I'm 9 miles from KFC, Sonic, Walmart..etc...but it feels like country, country,country...so quiet. I was on the market long enough to know quiet a few buyers can't see the forrest for the trees..it served me well in this case.TBW, 2 properties in Va, the sold home in Manassas and the farm with the caboose in Altavista, Va.
Robert: HA! Prices went up 3% over the past year. I warned you! I bet you regret not buying in 1992 now.TBW -- thats funny. Id say LOL but that doesnt do it justice. I chucked enough that a colleague asked what is so funny!
TBW,I'll say it, so you don't have to.Verizon and AOL cuts are pretty significant.The larger point that is one of the most worrisome variables for house prices is the recovery of the national economy. The stronger the better for house prices and vice versa.
Arkey,Are you keeping the acreage in Altavista? Our property is 45 miles from the beltway. It' 70acres woods and 20+ in meadows. We have a small group of hunters that maintain the fields and roads (and anything else) in return for hunting rights. We, too, have waterfront as well as a (to die for) stone cottage. I'd be living there right now but I don't think it would go over too well on the homefront!Our story of getting it is pretty amazing; as I'm sure yours is. Best of luck to you down south!
Va_Investor, we will proably sell it in the future..its a heck of a drive to Ar..but we are not in any hurry. One of the big timber companies used to own the hill side across the river but they sold it so we quit letting people hunt there when those big azz mcmansions stared being built along the ridge line. I could just see someones baby (human or animal) getting shot by a stray shot. Altho the people that hunt there are mostly local law enforcement and have been hunting since they could walk..I'm way conservative...
Arkey,Whenever we tell our son that it will be his someday, he makes a remark about putting us "in a home" and getting rid of it! Kids these days.I hear you on the hunt club issues. One worries about a bunch of yahoo's sitting in tree stands with 12 packs. We, too, were told Law Enforcement (standard line?). In any event, the group is more of an off-shoot (no pun intended). 4 or 5 guys (including the Pres. of the Club) doing this apart from the club. We have a fat liability policy and my agent tells me we are also covered under our umbrella.When we advertised the cottage for rent, I had to specifically state NO HUNT CLUBS. They are getting pretty desperate.We are fortunate (in many ways) that across the water from us is about 3K acres in conservation.
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