From Calculated Risk:
"Although sales were at a March record low, there are positives in this report - especially considering the upward revisions for previous months. It appears the months-of-supply has peak, and there is a reasonable chance that new home sales has bottomed for this cycle - however any recovery in sales will be modest because of the huge overhang of existing homes for sale."
27 comments:
contrarion, it looks like your buddy Hal Turner isn't so credible after all:
"The US government, releasing details of "stress tests" on the 19 largest financial institutions, said “most banks currently have capital levels well in excess of the amounts needed to be well capitalized."
contrarian,
there is no need to whip out the pointless strawman argument. Hal Turner said he had an advance copy of the stress test which indicated that "Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent."
You insisted that he was credible.
Just three days later, the official results are being released and - in contrast to Hal Turner's claim - “most banks currently have capital levels well in excess of the amounts needed to be well capitalized."
That's all my first post is about. You insisted Hal Turner was credible on the stress test issue, which we now know simply isn't true.
Why not just admit you were wrong on this one?
My guess is that the definition of "well capitalized" has been changed to make the report show what they want it to show.
contrarian said: "If you think the banks are "well capitalized," you are ____(?)_____ (fill in the blank)."
I didn't state an opinion one way or the other on whether the banks are well capitalized. I simply showed that your source, Hal Turner, was not credible like you claimed he was. He said 16 of 19 banks would fail the stress test and he was wrong.
I don't know why you find it so hard to admit he was wrong on this particular point.
Hal Turner is all wrong. I have the stress test results. I have a secret inside source with the government that says all of the banks are so well funded they are going to give all the TARP money back on monday and pay massive dividends to the shareholders.
Just like Hal Turner, I am not going to let a single other human soul see the secret document leaked to me. No way to judge if my stress test is authentic. But still rest assured, im not lying because I say im not lying.
Also my friend Steve is here with me as I post. Steve, have you seen the secret stress test? Am I lying.
I AM STEVE THE ANONYMOUS IS NOT LYING.
There you have it folks -- I am telling the truth -- Steve told you so.
So, you now have two sources, me and Hal Turner. Both saying the "official" stress test is bogus. He says its part of a Jew based conspiracy. Im telling you its a conspiracy to allow the bank to keep TARP funds and screw its shareholders.
Also, unlike Hal Turner, I never said the government is creating the Amero and secretly send it to China at behest of the Jews. Therefore I am more credible than Hal Turner.
So there you have it folks. The government stress test is bogus I have the real one but I will never show it to you. I am more credible than Hal, and Steve said I was right. Spread the word people -- spread the word...
It would be irresponsible of them to come out and say that most of our largest banks are insolvent. I'm fine with them lying about it and trying to fix it behind the scenes.
"Jeff said...
It would be irresponsible of them to come out and say that most of our largest banks are insolvent. I'm fine with them lying about it and trying to fix it behind the scenes."
I Agree Jeff. The question though, is why would the govt put down on paper the real thing,(marked "stress test") knowing how bad it was in reality when we all know its going to be spun and presented to us, the public, in the best light possible? Why not just skip the lying to yourself doc and go straight to the lying to the public doc?
Even more so, if you were going to create a super secret "real stress test" that no one but you would have, knowing it is never to be made public -- dont you think they would go the extra mile to make sure this doesnt get out?
Also, if someone on the inside wanted to out the government -- disclose the "real stress test" -- why did this person skip WSJ, CNN, AP, Reuters, Dow Jones, FT, Post, Times, etc. etc. -- why did they skip all those credible sources and give it to Hal Turner who is not credible, thinks everything is a conpiracy orchestarted by the Jews or the Blacks, makes up stuff about secret currency being sent to the chinese, etc. etc.
Sorry, this just makes no sense.
Besides, as I just posted, the govt gave the real stress test to me :)
contrarian said: "I will be the first to admit I err when I do, but there is no sense in admitting I am wrong when I am not."
Again, this isn't about whether the banks are insolvent or not, it's about whether Hal Turner was credible when he claimed he had an advance copy of the stress tests which stated 16 of 19 banks didn't pass the test.
We now know this to be false, you are here saying you'll be the first to admit when you are wrong, and yet you aren't admitting you are wrong. Instead, you are trying to change the subject away from whether Hal Turner was credible to whether the government is telling the truth.
Ready to stay true to your word and admit you were wrong about the credibility of Hal Turner?
Oh I was responding to contrarian, I don't believe there's a 'real' stress test that someone somehow got their hands on.
I don't think the stress test will be a real measure of how well these banks are doing. They need to make something that looks credible to boost public confidence. It's all somewhat of a farce as far as I'm concerned. My point was just that I'm cool with it :)
"JF said...
Again, this isn't about whether the banks are insolvent or not, it's about whether Hal Turner was credible when he claimed he had an advance copy of the stress tests which stated 16 of 19 banks didn't pass the test."
E X A C T L Y ! ! !
This is the issue we want you to addres Contrarian. Is this guy credible source of info????
If he is a credible source of info, explain to me whats going on with the Amero
http://halturnershow.blogspot.com/2008/10/i-have-obtained-actual-amero-from.html
Its funny, he says the govt created it as part of a super secret Jew based conspiracy -- and look he provided proof he has a real Amero!!!
Its the damndest thing though. Unlike every other currency where the govt controls the master strike plates, they let the artist, Dan Car, advertise on his own site where you can buy your own Amero's too:
http://www.dc-coin.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWPROD&ProdID=133
Gee - if Mr. Turner is so credible, you better get out RIGHT NOW and order as many of these Ameros as you can before the Jews find out and shut him down. Also, if you do buy, his blog says dont use a "nigger loving" company like UPS to send it to you.
http://halturnershow.blogspot.com/2009/03/server-damaged-in-shipment.html
Anyhoo. Its normally at this point when you run away since I dont think you think Mr. Turner is credible either, but you refuse to admit it. Still, like so many other threads, heres your chance to clear the air -- heres your chance to set the record straight...
IS MR TURNER CREDIBLE OR NOT???
I think we've established, or nearly established, that Turner WAS NOT credible on the apparently important (to us here) issue of an advanced stress test copy.
I think this is true whether contrarian is able to follow the logical ball on this or he can't. Whether he is able to admit he misplaced his faith in the wrong information source despite warnings and damning evidence, or he can't.
Here is an interesting CNN video on contrarian's buddy Hal Turner:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H14sowqqH9Q
Hey, Frank, if you're reading this, there seems to be a glitch on franklymls. I've been good and worked a long day - now I have to get my Sunday open houses planned!!!
"I don't know Turner. Turner's not a friend of mine. I do not support Turner or his views. I, like all of the others I cited above, linked to Turner because he was the original source of the alleged stress test results.
At this point, despite all of your claims to the contrary, I have no reason to not believe Turner possesses the stress test results."
You know, I have stayed out of this up to this point... but I have to say this isn't looking good for you contrarian.
There is no reason to "not believe" he has the stress test results?
I can think of LOTS of reasons why he almost certainly does not have them, starting with the fact that statistically speaking.... very very very few people have those results and if I had to guess I would say this guy is among the less likely people to have them, not more likely.
Just because some idiot puts something up on a blog doesn't mean it is even slightly credible. You have to consider the source, and this guy appears to be worse than useless. I would be more likely to believe a total stranger off the street than someone who is clearly as disconnected from reality as this guy.
It is not that different from the situation we had with lance. At first people gave him a fair shot, but past a point they just stopped listening because he had proven to worthless.
Wow, that is a lot of confusion for one post.
I am not going to go into some kind of a line by line response that clearly wouldn't do any good.
Hal Turner is a nutjob, conspiracy theorist, and a liar.
If he has the results he claims he has, he can go ahead and release them in their entirety and prove it.
Otherwise the only reasonable thing to do is assume the guy is making it all up, again.
I just checked his blog, he is claiming that the swine-flu outbreak is part of a massive government sponsored conspiracy to kill off a huge chunk of the population.
"What few considered was that our government is already saddled with so much debt they cannot hope to afford another Great Depression. They don't have the funds to pay unemployment, welfare, food stamps, free medical care through medicaid and and they have zero chance of borrowing the money to provide it. So, the decision has been made to "cull the herd."
They have no choice but to kill off a whole slew of "useless eaters, most of whom live in our major cities. They know that unless they kill them off, there will be so much social chaos that the government will fall or be overthrown and they definitely don't want that to happen."
As you said before, we have no reason to "not believe" Turner now do we?
lol
"Contrarian said...
You were drawing factual conclusions based upon mere "assumptions."
They call that "contempt prior to investigation."
Here was my reaction and I suspect that of Leroy and others.
1. Contrarian post a link to a guy named Hal Turner who says he has the stress test. Ive never heard of the guy - my instant reaction is he is telling the truth.
2. Novawatcher points out this guy is a racist, xenophobic nutjob. I see no reason for Novawatcher to discredit this guy without good cause (i.e. I deem Novawatcher credible) so I decide investigate for myself.
3. After looking at Mr. Turners past postings - including his screed about the Amero being secretly funneled to China - I DEEM THE GUY IS NOT CREDIBLE and therefore assume that his having the "stress test" is just as likely as the govt is involved in a jew based conspiracy to destroy the dollar (i.e. neither one is very likely at all).
This is what I suspect most rational people would do. If you had not found the source you likely would have made the same judgment.
Instead, you continued to dig yourself into this hole. By your own admission, you did no background investigation on this guy before you posted his "stress test" results.
Once Novawatcher pointed out this guy was an imbecile, the correct move was likely to apologize and move on. You didnt do that.
Instead, you were likely embarassed that you linked to a story from a bald faced liar, and in an effort to save face, you continue to thrash about suggesting this that or the other makes this guy credible.
You were given many chances to redeem yourself, yet you continue to dig deeper into this hole. Either come out and say, this guy isnt credible, or just quit posting on the subject altogether in the hopes that JF, myself, Leroy, Scott, etc. eventually quit bringing it up and let you off the hook.
"Great. Just great. You have not admitted what was apparent to the rest of the world all along. You were drawing factual conclusions based upon mere "assumptions.""
When I find myself looking at information from an unfamiliar source I take a little while to learn what I can about that source. The simple fact is that not all sources are credible. Many simply make things up for any of a variety of reasons.
So no, this is not simply an assumption. I took the time to look the guy up, determined that he is a serial liar and has credibility on par with the Weekly World News.
"They call that "contempt prior to investigation.""
No, this was contempt after an investigation.
"We all admit Turner is a scumbag. I did not know that when I posted the link. That does not take away from WHAT Turner posted, which is that 16 of the 19 major institutions are insolvent."
Being a scumbag does not necessarily mean you are not credible. There are some scumbags that are reliable within certain limits. This guy however is not only a scumbag, he is a liar. He makes up news stories one after another. Such a person is simply useless as a source of information. When the Weekly World News reports that aliens are secretly taking over Microsoft... well I don't rush to sell any Microsoft stock. They are just lying again.
"Do you dispute the fact that most of the major institutions are insolvent?"
That falls into the category of "interesting, if true."
I am willing to consider the possibility that some or even most of them are insolvent, but I am not aware of any credible evidence of that.
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